Nate Silver Takes on the Oscars

You may remember Nate Silver from the 2008 U.S. presidential elections, where he gained nationwide recognition, beyond baseball fans and stats geeks, by using statistics to correctly predict the electoral outcome in 49 out of the 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia. The published his predictions on his website, FiveThirtyEight.com.

As his latest project, he's taken on the Oscars, airing this Sunday. And here are his results...

- Best Pic: Slumdog Millionaire (99.0%)
- Director: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire (99.7%)
- Leading Actress: Kate Winslet (67.6%)
- Leading Actor: Mickey Rourke (71.1%)
- Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson (51.0%)
- Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (85.8%)

Some surprising picks... I am still betting on Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona for Best Supporting Actress, and on Sean Penn in Milk for Best Actor. We'll see who wins, me or statistics...

I will say, I'm happy not to see Benjamin "Forrest Gump The Sequel" Button in the lead for Best Film.

And, speaking of Best Films, I am still mourning over the massive and completely unfair diss of my favorite movie of the year.



Check out the article on NYMag for more on Nate Silver's Oscar picks.